Homicide rates in the United States over the past year have plummeted at a record pace.
Preliminary figures from data analysis firm AH Datalytics found homicide is down nearly 13 percent from this point last year.
“The overall trend was extraordinarily positive and should be recognized as such,” analyst Jeff Asher wrote in his end-of-year summary of crime stats.
The country is expected to end 2023 with about 18,450 homicides, compared to 21,156 recorded in 2022, the analysis found.
A separate ABC News analysis of data from the 10 largest cities in the country found seven have seen double-digit year-over-year declines in homicides this year, including New York City at 11 percent, Los Angeles with 16 percent and Chicago’s 13 percent.
The data, however, hasn’t translated into a change in public perception. A Gallup poll released last month found that 77 percent of Americans surveyed believe crime has increased in the past year. More than half said crime has risen where they live.
Asher summed up the disconnect: “In other words, tell your friends and family because they probably think crime is surging nationally. And in this case, they’re almost certainly wrong.”
Gallup dove deeper into personal attitudes toward crime.
“Americans’ deteriorating perceptions of the crime problem correspond with a recent spike in the percentage reporting that crime has affected their household,” Gallup’s analysts wrote.
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